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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-03T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-03T01:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46585/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-06-03T01:53Z. It is also faintly seen as a halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 but is partially obscured by the pylon. It is also seen as a halo to the NW in GOES CCOR-1. This CME is associated with an M9.3 class flare from AR 14455 (N13W10) that peaked at 2026-06-03T01:36Z. The flare can best be seen in SDO AIA 131. L1 arrival is likely to be 3 merged CMES 2026-06-03T11:48Z, 2026-06-03T07:23Z, 026-06-03T01:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-05T04:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-04T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1600
Longitude (deg): 20W
Latitude (deg): 16N
Half-angular width (deg): 20

Notes: M9.3 flare from AR4455 in the NW produced a partial halo CME seen in CCOR-1 initially, then ST-A and LASCO C2. A reasonable fit using a mix of the aforementioned coronagraph imagery. It's a fast CME, so expecting the arrival to be as early as 04 June. DH. Reduced the speed by 200 km/s - due to low confidence in speed. YF
Space weather advisor: Alister McHardy

Lead Time: 32.30 hour(s)
Difference: 10.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-06-03T20:05Z

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